Earlier today Donald Trump, who despite lagging Hillary badly in the most recent polls, remains perceived as the presidential candidate who is better equipped to do a "better job on the economy"...
... even though a majority believes that Hillary is "more qualified" to be president (suggesting that to Americans the economy is not really a core part of the presidential mandate) unveiled his all-male economic team which in addition to boasting 6 guys named Steve, also includes billionaire hedge fund manager, John Paulson, to help guide the GOP presidential candidate's economic policy.
The 13-member group, whose average member has a net worth in the high double-digit million, features several longtime Trump business associates but only one academic economist, Peter Navarro of the University of California-Irvine. He specializes in trade with China, which Trump has made the centerpiece economic policy of his campaign.
The team’s best-known names, in conservative policy circles, are Steve Moore, the founder of the Club for Growth advocacy group and a former economic columnist for the Wall Street Journal; David Malpass, who served in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and is a former Bear Stearns economist; and Harold Hamm, a self-made oil billionaire who was a top energy adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. Inside the campaign, the team is led by policy director Stephen Miller, a former aide to Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, and deputy director Dan Kowolski.
Other advisers include Dan DiMicco, a former CEO of steelmaker Nucor; Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s national finance director, who is chairman and CEO of the investing firm Dune Capital Management; Steve Roth, founder and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust; hedge fund billionaire John Paulson; Howard Lorber, CEO of the Vector Group in Florida; real estate investor Tom Barrack; bankers Stephen M. Calk and Andy Beal; and financier Steve Feinberg
The campaign's policy team will be led by national director of policy Stephen Miller and deputy director Dan Kowalski.
In a release announcing the group, Trump said it was ‘‘comprised of some of the top economists in the country as well as the most successful industry leaders in finance, real estate and technology.
"I am pleased that we have such a formidable group of experienced and talented individuals that will work with me to implement real solutions for the economic issues facing our country," Trump said in a statement emailed Friday.
A breakdown of the key names in the team, per Reuters:
- JOHN PAULSON, HEDGE FUND MANAGER
Paulson is best known on Wall Street for his bet against the overheated housing market in 2007 that netted him and his investors billions of dollars in profits. But Paulson’s calls on stocks and the economy have been less accurate lately. His investments have lost some $15 billion in assets in the last five years, leaving his Paulson & Co Inc hedge fund with roughly $13 billion at the end of June. He is known for making contrarian bets and being patient. He has been one of only a handful of hedge fund managers to have publicly endorsed Trump, with many others saying privately that they are still on the fence or leaning toward his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.
- STEVE FEINBERG, PRIVATE EQUITY FUND MANAGER
Feinberg is chief executive officer of Cerberus Capital Management LP, a private equity firm he co-founded in 1992. He headed the investment firm during its failed takeover of automaker Chrysler in 2007. The investment firm served as Chrysler's majority owner until the troubled car maker was restructured in a government-sponsored bankruptcy in 2009. Feinberg had promised to revive the company, according to a New York Times profile, but instead lost billions. (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/business/09cerb.html...) Feinberg has defended his role to try to save the carmaker. He ultimately had to appeal to Washington for help.
- DAVID MALPASS, FORMER TREASURY, STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL
Malpass served under two previous Republican administrations, first as a deputy assistant Treasury secretary for President Ronald Reagan and later as a deputy assistant Secretary of State for President George H.W. Bush.
Malpass, in a CNBC interview on Friday, called for greater infrastructure spending as well as tax cuts, trade reform, regulatory reform and energy reform, although he gave few specfics. "We need more effective spending, and Trump wants to do that - to have stronger finances for the country," he said. Malpass has been a vocal critic of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy since the financial crisis, in particular its large bond holdings. Malpass, who was also chief economist at investment bank Bear Stearns, now runs Encima Global Llc, an investment consulting firm.
- PETER NAVARRO, PROFESSOR
Navarro is the only adviser on the list with a Ph.D. in economics, and the only one who has spent most of his life as an academic. He earned his doctorate at Harvard University and is now a professor of economics and public policy at the University of California, Irvine's business school. Navarro has written nine books, three of them critical about China’s effect on the rest of the world, including “Death by China: Confronting the Dragon – A Global Call to Action.” He thinks the United States should be tougher on trade and intellectual property theft, and has proposed slapping a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports. Navarro recently wrote in an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times that Trump would crack down on any country “that cheats on its trade deals using practices such as currency manipulation and illegal export subsidies.”
- HOWARD LORBER, HOLDING COMPANY CEO
Lorber is president and CEO of holding company Vector Group Ltd VGR.N, whose three subsidiaries make cigarettes as well as e-cigarettes. It also operates two real estate subsidiaries: a real estate investment company and a real estate brokerage firm. A fellow New Yorker, Trump's campaign has mentioned Lorber as one of Trump's best friends. The two traveled together to Russia in the 1990s, according to news reports.
- STEVEN MNUCHIN, INVESTMENT MANAGER
A former partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc who now works in entertainment financing, Mnuchin is chairman and CEO of private investment firm Dune Capital Management LP. Trump named Mnuchin, who had a long history of political donations to Democrats, including to Hillary Clinton, as his finance chair in May. Mnuchin has said he has had a personal and professional relationship with Trump for more than 15 years.
- DAN DIMICCO, FORMER STEEL EXECUTIVE
DiMicco is the former chief executive and executive chairman of steel producer Nucor Corp NUE.N, one of the biggest U.S. steelmakers. His outspoken push for tougher U.S. trade policies to support domestic manufacturing and his fierce anti-China rhetoric have made him one of the most high-profile executives in the steel industry. In recent years, he has taken his campaign for new trade rules online and has publicly endorsed Trump's call for a tougher approach on trade. "You don't win a Trade War with appeasement or more Free Trade agreements," DiMicco wrote in a July 10 blog post on his website, www.dandimicco.com.
- STEPHEN MOORE, FOUNDER, CLUB FOR GROWTH
Moore is one of the leading conservative economic voices in the United States. He embraces tax cuts as key to economic growth, as well as free trade and immigration reform. Moore founded the anti-tax advocacy group Club for Growth, where he served until he left the organization in 2004. He later served as a member of The Wall Street Journal editorial board. He is currently a fellow at the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, focusing on economic growth.
- TOM BARRACK, REAL ESTATE FINANCIER
Barrack is a longtime friend of Trump and a fellow hotel developer. He is the founder and executive chairman of private equity firm Colony Capital Inc CLNY.N and is co-chairman of the board of trustees of Colony Starwood Homes SFR.N. Barrack spoke out in favor of Trump at the Republican National Convention in July, but afterwards his company announced it was dropping out of Trump's Old Post Office hotel project in Washington, according to a report in The Washington Post.
* * *
The announcement comes ahead of Trump's planned economic policy speech in Detroit on Monday. Trump is slated to detail personal and corporate tax cuts as well as energy and health-care policy changes aimed to boost American economic growth. "It's going to be a very substantial pro-growth message," Larry Kudlow, a senior CNBC contributor and informal adviser to the Trump campaign, said Thursday. Others disagree.
To be sure, an economic policy focus would mark a welcome shift for the Trump campaign and would allow the billionaire developer to showcase his business acumen which he has repeatedly pitched to voters.
He will, however, have to do it without Carl Icahn.
According to Reuters, the billionaire investor, who as we documented earlier has never been more bearish and thus in alighment with Donald Trump who recently urged Americans to reduce their stock market expsure, turned down an invitation to join Trump's economic advisory council because Icahn is considering funding and managing his own Super PAC focused on regulatory reform, Icahn's general counsel told Reuters on Friday.
"Mr. Icahn declined the opportunity to join the Trump economic advisory council because at this time, we’re still considering whether to fund and manage our own Super PAC focused on regulatory reform," Jesse Lynn, general counsel to Icahn, said by telephone. "FEC (Federal Election Commission) rules would limit that activity if Mr. Icahn were to become directly involved in the campaign by joining the council."
Last October, Icahn said he was forming a Super PAC with an initial commitment of $150 million, representing the biggest one-time injection of money in the history of such political action committees.
And while we doubt that Icahn has much to be concerned about when it comes to money, we wonder if his political ambitions aren't spreading him too thin. We doubt the Icahn of the 80's would allow himself to make such massive market bets as the one we documented earlier, at a time when investments based on fundamental analysis make zero sense, as there no longer is a market but a central bank-determined policy vehicle, whose only purpose is to restore confidence in a broken system kept afloat with $200 billion in central bank liqudity every month, and of course to reflate a few hundred trillion worth of debt.
